Fuel Supply
Protests around fuel prices in Ireland are entering their fourth day, with three of the country's main refineries and terminals blockaded, and petrol pumps in forecourts across the country have run dry, with demonstrators claiming they will remain in place until they secure a meeting with the government. Around half of the country's fuel supplies are now locked in terminals and at the Whitegate refinery due to protests, causing around 500 service stations across the country to risk running out of stock.
Food & Supply Chain
Urban retail footfall has fallen by approximately 50% across Dublin, Cork, Galway, and Limerick as fuel blockades disrupt supply chains. Irish grocery prices increased by 6.5% in the 12 weeks to 22 March, while egg shortages on supermarket shelves have become a serious reality due to insufficient farmgate prices. Around 500 service stations across the country could run out of stock due to blockades at fuel depots, creating knock-on effects for food logistics and delivery services.
Transport & Infrastructure
Fuel protests entering third day of demonstrations against Government inaction on fuel crisis. Protesters continue blocking roads around Dublin and motorways nationwide. Protests have escalated from slow-moving convoys to blockades of fuel depots supplying half the country, raising concern over panic buying at forecourts and impacts on emergency services.
Political & Resolution
Government holds constructive but unproductive Friday meeting with industry bodies; no new fuel relief announced. Defence Forces deployed with heavy recovery vehicles to clear blockades at critical infrastructure. Protest leadership fractured and decentralized, demands remain unmet; negotiations stalled over sequencing dispute (protesters demand talks before ending blockade).
Severity Trends
Category severity over the past 7 updates
Risk Scenarios
Probabilistic assessment across 24 tracked scenarios
Near-term Operational (48hrs – 2 weeks)
Medium-term Economic (2–8 weeks)
Severe Escalation (1–6 months)
Extreme Tail Risks (low probability, high impact)
Included for analytical completeness — low probability but monitored for early warning signals
Data sources heavily weighted toward establishment/government perspective with limited anti-establishment or protest organizer viewpoints retrieved.